PISSED OFF. Thanks for that, Blogger. So here goes attempt number two...
I have my first real hand analysis I'd like to get some feedback on. This hand just really bugs me for several reasons and I'd be interested in knowing if I played it like total trash or just got unlucky, cuz I keep going back and forth.
This is the SECOND HAND of a $5.50 6-max SNG. I am UTG and have AK suited. With blinds at 15/30, I make it 125 to go. There are three MP callers, SB folds, and then the BB min re-raises to 220. I'm not fond of my spot here with a premium, albeit drawing, hand, a min-raise, 3 left to act, and no position. I can't fold, and I feel like a real re-raise would commit me (with "nothing"), so I just call and see how interested the other MP players are. One folds, and unfortunately two others call.
Flop: A 6 J rainbow.
This is about as good of a flop as I could hope for, but at the $5.50 level there could easily be someone in this pot with a hand that is killing me. The BB (the aggressor) checks, putting me in yet another precarious spot. This guy either whiffed or flopped a monster (and boy do they love the check-raise at this level, so I'm already expecting it), but which could it be? And with people yet to act after me, I don't want to give up the lead on this hand or a free card after showing strength and flopping a damn good hand. I bet 500, leaving me 700 behind for
His most obvious holdings are AA, KK, or AK. Unfortunately at this level a PF re-raise could also mean AQ, AJ, A10, and QQ-1010 or so. I have to logically rule out AA with the presence of the case two aces. As sick as that would be, and we've all seen it before, I can't play scared of AA. I'm now slaughtering KK, and I'm tied w/AK. That leaves JJ, AJ, or 66 that has me in bad shape. Again, it would take some major cojones (or a complete lack of poker skill) to PF re-raise 66 with four people in the pot for a 4xBB raise from UTG, so I have to logically rule that out. JJ is a likely holding, and I should probably go broke against it. AJ would just really make me sick given the PF re-raise in a 4 way pot and odds against my hand preflop, but I know its a fully valid possibility. They love AJ at this level. In the end, I'm only scared of two hands that would be no beter than 30% to have just outflopped me, and I'm tied with another likely holding, so I don't think I can lay it down. Plus, my gut read felt like a busted KK making a play at the pot. I made the call, and don't improve against AJo.
Now first, this is everything I hate about low limits online. This guy makes an absolutely horrific play by "normal" poker standards and gets paid off for it in a HUGE way. I know that I love for people to make plays like this and blah blah blah, but why can't they pull this shit against other donkeys instead of me? If I were at that table and I would've seen that hand, my sights would've been locked and loaded on that stack, cuz you know he's just gonna spew 'em off in much the same manner. But I digress...
So what could I have done and had chips after this hand? Lets look...
A. Folded UTG
Pros - I still have chips.
Cons - Fold AK suited to no raise? Come on...
Verdict - No f'n way.
B. Three-bet PF
Pros - With 3 people to act behind me, I give myself a shot at isolating my hand against the aggressor, who either has a monster or is making a terrible play. Or if the BB happens to fold I scoop a nice pot.
Cons - A reasonable re-raise would probably have me putting out a 750 or so chip bet, or just pushing. If the BB calls less than a push, my money is likely going in anyway w/TPTK and ridiculous pot odds. If the BB 4-bets me all-in (if he even can?), I have to give him credit for AA or KK and could either fold w/500 chips left, or just get it in good and kill myself after the flop. If the BB calls my push, see above. All this, and I'm still worried about the 3 left to act.
Verdict - There is a slight chance I get away from this hand w/500 chips or so, but I'm going broke if it all goes in PF, or still going broke if I flop TPTK. I don't like the outcome.
C. Fold to the re-raise.
Pros - I get away from a draw and impending doom early in this SNG with over 1250 chips and live to take the donkey out.
Cons - With so many people in the pot I'm bound to either be dominating or a flop away from the best hand. With 125 invested and another 750 in the pot its hard to not at least see a flop for 95 chips with the biggest drawing hand there is.
Verdict - While this probably would've been the easiest spot to get away from impending doom, I can't justify a fold with AK suited with 7 to 1 on my money.
D. Check the flop.
Pros - It either checks around and I get an opportunity to reassess on the turn, or one of the MP players bets and gets check-raised, giving me a nice spot to get away from the hand with a clear conscience.
Cons - This is a horribly weak play. Assuming I have the best hand, I have to bet out for value and to get draws out of the hand. The other 7 times out of 10 that I've flopped a dominatingly good hand, I cannot give 3 other players a free card.
Verdict - While its weak as hell to check this flop and my number one focus is getting away from weak/tight, someone besides myself getting check-raised is my easiest ticket out of this hand. This is easily my most intriguing option.
E. Bet the flop bigger or push all-in.
Verdict - We don't even need pros and cons here. Given the hand, this option is basically irrelevant. By betting the flop bigger I reduce the pot odds of drawers, but in the case of this hand the MP players still fold, I still get check-raised all-in, and with less
So I think that about covers it. By talking through it here, it seems like the best way for me to get out of the hand would've been check-folding the flop, but it only would've been made an easy decision if one of the MP players bet, which they likely wouldn't have if they folded to my 1/2 pot bet. It seems to me that any reasonably aggressive play in this hand pretty much gets all my chips in the middle. I think I just got fairly horribly unlucky.
Please take some time to share your opinion if you have one.
Things have been starting to trend back up, but still when I lose, I LOSE. Which isn't a bad thing, because getting sucked out on just means you're getting your money in good. So I'll just keep doing that as best I can!
I'm not abiding strictly to the standard "SNG Challenge" structure in that if I get above $22.50, I'm playing the $5.50s, and if I get to $66, I'm gonna move up to the $11s. But at that point I'll wait until $220 to move up to the $22s, since that's uncharted territory. I've also switched to 6-max because they play a lot looser and dumber, plus they're quicker. I've found they play a lot like a turbo, and an ABC TAG game will get you to the final three, at which point the blind to stack ratio is pretty large and there's definitely some play. I've had a couple of marathon HU matches in these 6-max, both of which I came out on the losing end of, and both of which REALLY irritated me the way my opponents played and won. But thanks to a nice chunk of rakeback and 3 wins out of 5 tables last night I'm up to $60, so if I can cash in another $5.50, I'll get at least one shot at the $11s again. My focus for the next couple weeks will just be trying to generate rake and get as much of my $50 FT bonus cleared as I can, so I'd like to get settled in at at least the $11 level.
BTW, if you didn't get an email or haven't heard about it, you should be able to go to the "Requests" menu in your Full Tilt client and select the "Check my bonus offer..." option and have a no deposit required bonus from them. This is the first no-deposit bonus I've been offered, so mad props from me to Full Tilt!
So I guess I'll check ya later!
5 comments:
Found your blog from your comment on Hoy's blog. Hope you don't mind hearing my thoughts - you may not value them as others and I can understand that. But I do play similar stakes, so perhaps my POV is helpful.
It's only the second hand, but all things considered, I would push:
1. My biggest reason is that his min raise can't represent that he's got AA or KK. If he does, he's HORRIBLY misplaying it. With 3 people in the pot, including two who called an UTG raise, his raise won't thin the pot (which is exactly what happened). I don't know what I would put him on here with that min raise, but at best I'd say it's QQ, although it could be anything from QQ-TT, maybe AQ-A8 (I'm considering the level of play at a $5 SnG). So at worst, it's a coinflip, at best he's drawing to 3 outs.
2. Calling is an option as well, and I'll often do this since AK is just a drawing hand, although I'd hate to do it in a 3-4 way pot. Once the flop hits, I don't think you can get away from this hand unless you think he has JJ. Perhaps it would be easier to fold if you lead out for less - maybe like 250-300. The only hands that beat you are: AA, AJ, A6, JJ, J6, or 66. AA, A6, J6, or 66 seem unlikely, so if you're beat it's either AJ or JJ. JJ seems a more likely holding than AJ. Since the board doesn't have any flush draws, and only a T completes a straight, I don't think you need to worry about betting out any draws. A bet of 250-300 will tell you just the same amount that 500 will, and it will commit you less.
3. Are you the kind of player that can fold TPTK on this kind of flop? If not, hand analysis won't do any good.
All in all, I think there were a couple of ways to play the hand that could have saved you some chips, but whether or not those options are optimal are debatable.
I disagree with your read that it was a busted KK. I've seen people hold KK who try to bluff on an A high flop, but more often than not you'll see a bigger re-raise preflop. I think his mentality is this: "Unless I'm reraised, I've probably got the best Ax. If I catch the flop, I'm golden, so I'll min-raise to build the pot preflop. If I miss, I can try to bluff or fold to any aggression." At a $5 table, I don't think you'll find players skilled enough to minraise KK successfully.
Lots more I could say about this, but it'd probably just be overkill. GL, and don't let the donkeys get to you!
-Matt
Very thought provoking post. Thanks.
Short answer: you're stuffed.
Long answer: what he said.
Oh, you wanted some real content? Mutter, mutter, mutter.
Ok, AK wants to be in a small pot (preferably heads up with position) preflop, or all in preflop. The former is certainly not a possibility here, and folding preflop (after the reraise) would be a bit obscure unless you think that you're a lot better than the rest of the table, so that seems to leave pushing.
Postflop, checking just seems wrong. The bet is reasonable, but over the raise I think fold is in order. The raise really feels more to me like AJ or JJ than anything else (the former makes the preflop play pretty awful, but the latter is pretty consistent all 'round).
Don pedant's hat
"Fold equity" usually refers to the pot equity that you gain through a bet because your opponent might fold. Typically it's considered in push situations with weak(ish) hands. You're main hopes of gaining money from the pot is not by winning a contested pot, but by taking the pot uncontested. It is not usually used to refer to your remaining equity should you choose to fold to a raise.
remove pedant's hat
Don pedant's hat again
I seem to have written:
"You're main hopes of gaining money from the pot is ...".
Oh dear, oh dear.
Please read
"Your main hope of gaining money from the pot is ..."
Retire shamefaced
Yo Windbreak. Here's my thoughts on the hand.
As I've written about before, sometimes I like to just limp with AK from UTG, hoping to put in a nice reraise if its gets raised behind me. That is less doable in 6-max holdem, but to be honest I still find myself making this play more and more in my own game. Not that the raise is a bad play by any means -- it is IMO the technically "correct" play. Just something to think about.
Putting that aside though, surely the UTG raise with AK was a good move. Now, after the minraise from LP following a raise and a bunch of callers, I would definitely be tempted to just push allin here preflop as a re-reraise. This way you're preserving your chance to see all 5 cards on the board (thus maximizing the value of your AK), and quite often you will get everyone to fold here. Obviously this move would have pushed out the two MP callers, and who knows if the donkeyeffer with the AJ is going to lay down to this or not, but clearly you want him to call you there as well.
An important point to make here IMO is that I am just not thinking the guy has a premium pair when he only min-raises from LP. No way pocket Aces or pocket Kings makes a bet there that is almost guaranteed to bring in 3 other callers. And, since AA and KK are the only hands I am realistically worried about him having here, this supports all the more my thought to just push allin on the re-reraise preflop there.
That said, given this action and the serious unlikelihood of an AA holding by this opponent, I am almost surely calling the allin checkraise here, knowing that there is realistically only the AJ or JJ holding to worry about (only an uberdonk is min-raising preflop with 66 as well). That is just too many hands you can beat here, and far too few hands that you're crushing.
And who are we kidding, this is just a $5.50 buyin event anyways, so what's the worst that can happen? If this is $1000 stack nlh cash and you're going to lose a grand if you're wrong, maybe I give this a little more thought to calling an allin with just one pair on the flop (but I still probably make the call given the preflop action, and I'm assuming there that I am probably tied with another AK holding), but in this spot to me this is an easy call of the allin checkraise.
Fun hand, sucks the way it turned out. Very riggedly if you ask me.
Looks like a hand that would screw you one way or another. The minimal re-raise would have initially worried me the most -"what the heck is he doing?" A pox on A-K!
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