Hand Analysis Wrap-Up

First off, thanks to those that stopped by to toss in their two cents on the hand. I have a couple loyal readers and had to go plant a couple of seeds to draw in some extra help, but the good information that came out of it is priceless, no matter what.

Now, instead of commenting I thought I'd wrap this up with a post addressing my feedback.

Matt's feedback was very helpful because he indicates that he plays at the same level. This is immesurably important. I very much value *any* opinion, Matt, so thanks so much for taking the initiative to stop by after reading my plea for help in Hoy's comments. In regards to the min-raise with an uber-premium hand (AA or KK), it is true that it doesn't make sense here, but again this is where the level at which I'm playing is important. They LOVE to min-raise monsters at this level so that they can say they raised but still whine when they get sucked out on. That is a crucial part of the donkey bad beat story. They don't understand that a min-raise means nothing and that these hands do not hold up in multi-way pots. They get a monster and in their minds the hand is won. So although I'd love to, unfortunately I can't rule out AA or KK here. I do very much like your suggestion of a smaller bet, thus less committing me to this pot. I took into brief consideration that this wasn't a big drawing flop, but I hated betting even half the pot, let alone less than that. However, if I'm getting raised, its likely A) for all my chips, B) by a hand that beats mine, or both. Like you say, a smaller bet gets me all the information I need, and gives me all the more reason to fold when I'm check-raised. I did not consider just how weak of a drawing hand this was, and how little I could've bet to find out what I needed. Your third point is poignant and important. I've thought about it a lot over the past couple of days. I'm an odds guy, so the answer to your question comes down to odds. In the spot I put myself in, getting 4 to 1 on my money with TPTK and the range I'm up against, I can't fold. But if I put out a smaller probe bet like you suggest, thus decreasing my odds when it comes time to call off all my chips, I could have laid this hand down. Anyway, thanks for stopping by Matt, and I'll have to get you added to my Google Reader!

Next was Michael. The key thing I take away from his comment is AK wants to be in a small pot (preferably heads up with position) preflop, or all in preflop. That takes this giant pain of an ass hand and pretty well sums it up. While there's obviously a little more to the hand based on suit, position, players in the pot, etc, this statement at least lays a foundation for playing the hand. Beyond that he pretty much thought through the hand like I did. You can't fold it to the PF min-raise (of my initial raise), and you can't check it on the flop, which leads to his short answer. And, of course, he set me straight on the term "Fold Equity". I know when I first flagged down this term it was in the context that he describes, but I still think it makes at least a little sense in reference to leaving yourself fold equity. But I guess I won't go out on a limb and try to give a new definition to the term. I'll just try not to embarass myself using shit wrong again.

And finally, Hoy. I really love the first thing he discusses in regards to limping UTG or in very early position w/AK. I have already started doing this w/AQ. Fact of the matter is, AK is the best possible DRAWING hand, and the cheapest you can get to the flop with it, the better. Now, you want to push out other unpaired hands, but as the first to act, raising it can get you into trouble if there are better hands behind you. The other problem with my game and this strategy is that I am not a PF RE-raiser with AK. I've seen this a lot on TV and in blog posts recently, so maybe I need to start testing out this strategy. I just hate the idea of re-raising w/AK and either running into another re-raise, or whiffing the flop. But I will definitely experiment with the limp-reraise AK strategy going forward. And Hoy...easy with the "just" $5.50 buyin, there, buddy. Keep in mind we're dealing with a $60 bankroll, so I'm technically playing out of my roll by indulging in a $5.50. ;-)

The common theme in all three of these comments is the PF push, and I agree that this might have been my best move. I think Hoy said it best when he said "you're preserving your chance to see all 5 cards on the board (thus maximizing the value of your AK)". It would've been interesting to see if this guy would've gone to battle with his AJ, or if I go ahead and take down an already ripe 20 BB chip pot. Regardless, I will certainly stop and think about how to best play my AK just a few seconds longer from here on out. Thanks again to all the commenters who took the time.

Moving on...poker gods be damned, I am on FIRE. My roll increased from $29 to $60 on Monday, $60 to $120 Tuesday, and then another $21 to $141 yesterday. I'm running good, and the $5 and $10 6-MAX on Full Tilt are a freaking joke. They play just like a turbo. These people seem to think that fewer players equals finding any decent hand and getting as many chips in the middle as possible. So I sit back and drag the orphaned pots and try and pick people off in big spots as best I can. There is ZERO patience. Tuesday night I played in one where we were heads up with blinds at 25/50. Yes folks, that's level two. I came from a 2500 to 6500 chip deficit to win when my opponent got impatient by 80/160. I'd say the average level you get to heads up is 60/120 or 80/160, which leaves an average stack 28-38 big blinds. Patience is absolutely the number one key in these things. If you let these players suck you into their LAG & jam game, you are unnecessarily putting too much at risk. Its so easy to sit back, be patient, and pick your spots. I don't know why they play so much different than the full table SNGs, but they're a night and day difference.

So for now I'm riding the wave, and hopefully I can ride it all the way to the $20 level and beyond. But I'll be on the look out around every corner for that next bout with variance.

Check ya later I guess.