Friday, November 17, 2006

You know, its funny...

This post that I am now editing I had started last Friday, and it started out "I did have about an hour to play last night, and I got back to my roots and grinded out a $30 win."

Boy, has it gotten ugly since then. That win on Thursday put me at $177. Currently, my bankroll is at $9. Yes...NINE DOLLARS.

Variance is here. I knew that I was due some, but I never really realized exactly how disgustingly brutal it is. For the most part, the starting two cards are about the same. However, the position I get them in and the raises I face with them due to said position and everything else after that is NOT. I'm dealt most of my flop-worthy cards in EP, and am forced to limp, only to face that inevitable raise that's way more than you can call with your holding and/or risk missing the flop. If I do get a raising hand in EP, I'll go ahead and make that raise, only to get called by the big blind w/KJo, who makes his gutshot straight by the turn and dethrone a hand I actually hit. So thats the starting two cards. I'm dealing with it. What makes me want to eat a bullet is the flops that couldn't be missing me any more, and the action that I'm getting when I do hit a rare big hand.

If I actually get to see a flop, I miss it. Very rarely can I even make top pair these days, let alone anything better than that. If I do happen to hit a hand, its either beat, or gets outrun in the worst way to get beat. I'm still doing a pretty decent job of getting in with the best of it. But generally all it takes is a flop to change that, or if I get it in on the flop with the lead, a runner or two. When I make top pair, my kicker isn't good enough or my opponent has an ugly two pair. When I have someone dominated, we manage to split. What this all adds up to in a SNG is chips leaving the stack trying to see flops and calling when I've got odds to straights or flushes, pushing when its time to push, and either being behind or getting outflopped if I'm ahead. If I hit a big hand, I can't get any action. If I try and play it pretty standard, I scare everyone away. And when I slow play it, I get rocked. I lost with AA shorthanded twice in the past two sessions by slow playing it. I'm damned if I do, and damned if I don't. And a coin flip?? Forget it.

Variance is not kind.

If I'm taking anything away from this, its the fact that I finally understand variance. I have never really played consistently enough to know the difference between a few rough beats, playing badly, and variance. This, I know is variance, because it just won't stop, and its some of the most ridiculous shit I've ever seen. I'm playing my game, and getting cold decked HARD. I am back to the $2 SNGs, a level that I used to kill in my sleep, and busting in 5th, 6th, and 7th, never even having been in it, sometimes never winning a pot.

I have examined my play. Initially, when my bankroll went from $425 down to sub-$100, there were several bad decisions involved in calling off buy-ins at the .50/1 NL tables. Granted, they were unlikely beats on opponents terribly played hands in several cases, but I was also tilting, and blind to the possibility of the better hands that my opponents ended up holding. Sadly, that was child's play variance. Now? I am playing every SNG like its my last (because it damn near is), and can do absolutely nothing to combat this streak of luck like I've never seen before.

So...when I think about poker right now, it makes me angry and nervous. But when I'm playing, I'm extremely focused. This *has* to end, and I'd like to think that despite what I'm facing while playing these days, there's no way I can go busto at the $2 SNG level.

*knocks furiously on wood*

Things are NOT looking up right now in the least bit, but I'm finding some peace of mind in the fact that all of this started with a $10 freeroll win, so if I did it once, I can do it again. I've still got about two months until the Circuit Event, including some significant time off from work, open weekends, and more time at the B&M casino. So the quest is not over, and I'm learning every step of the way.

That said, its noon and the office is a ghost town. Time to head home and get this train back on the tracks.

2 comments:

Wolverine Fan said...

Take a day or two off from playing and reread up on Sklansky or Harrington to help you set things in order. Another quick read is Phil Gordons Little Green Book of Poker. I find that it really helps me with SitNGos and making me more aggressive.

You may have to drop down to $1 SitNgos and work your way back.

Good luck!

WindBreak247 said...

Thanks for taking a couple of minutes to comment. Its great advice.

I was pulling for Michigan last weekend, BTW. Back in middle school I was a big Michigan fan, and I'm still moreso than an OSU fan.

Hope your "challenge" is still going well. ;-)