Thursday, April 19, 2007

A SNG End Game Big Stack Faceoff Hand

A post by Mookie and my subsequent comment (please note that I had it wrong in his comment until I came home and reviewed the hand history) made me decide to post about a hand that happened to me Wednesday night. I knew at the time that this was an intriguing hand, but as I stepped through it in my comment to Mookie, it compelled me to post about it here and see if anyone had any thoughts.

We're in the end game stages of a 6-max, blinds at 120/240. There's 4 players left, but two of them are holding on for dear life. With stacks of <2BBs and just over 6BB, their fate is at the hands of the poker gods. Push and pray, baby. We all know that anything can happen, but for all intents and purposes, the money is decided and its just a matter of busting some shorties. At least...that's what I thought.

I was a small chip lead (with 3.7k) and had JQo on the button. 3rd place folds UTG, I raise to 750, hoping to entice the SB to commit his stack (500ish) and tell the 2nd place big blind (3.4k) "I got this". But my plan backfired. Small blind folds, and the 2nd place stack calls in the big.

I'm not thrilled about the call for a couple reasons...
1) I have the kind of hand that I would like with the opportunity to bust a shorty, but not the type of hand I would like to have against a 2nd place chip stack that apparently feels compelled to butt heads.
2) Dude...c'mon...fold! In 10 hands or less we'll probably be heads up.

Flop comes J-high rainbow, which immediately, I don't hate...until he bets out 960 into the 1620 pot. IMO, its a damn decent bet. It could be a value bet or a stab at the pot on a disgustingly raggy flop. You could easily argue both ways. It also basically commits him to the pot, at this point having put more in than he has remaining in his stack. That's a scary prospect that indicates he's ready to go to battle right here, right now. Furthermore, if its a bluff, it couldn't be a worse bluff, because its hard to find a way for him to fold at this point. While I admittedly didn't take all of this into consideration in the moment, I really think for a while about if he could really be ahead here and finally, based on pre and post-flop feel/timing reads, plus my general feeling for his play at this table to this point, I just can't put him on a set (ridiculous cold deck) or JK/AJ (more likely holdings, IMO), and I push. After a little bit of thought, he calls, shows AQ, I dodge his 3-outer, and he's sent packing. After the new 2nd place stack takes out the micro stack, I take the thing down after a short heads up battle.

Now correct me if I'm wrong, but this guy had no business going broke here, right? I understand its hard to lay down AQ there, and its probably not right to lay down AQ there. He was getting about 2 to 1 on his call (I don't have PokerStove right in front of me, but AQ has to be 2 to 1 against a random hand), so you have two choices...call and see a flop, prepared to get away from it if you miss, or push (which I'm certain is the favorite choice among bloggers). At this point in the evolution of my game, I would also call and get to a flop, but this close to the money I wouldn't be dicking around betting this flop if I've missed. I'd check-fold and still be sitting solidy in 2nd place. I also wouldn't push my AQ preflop because I see no reason to get all my chips in the middle here unless I'm in a dominating position. On the off chance that I'm against AA, KK, QQ, AK, or any coin flip situation, I just can't find a reason for putting my chips at risk when I'm virtually guaranteed money. A fold would be REALLY hard, but maybe a damn decent argument as well. In fact, I really do think I could fold AQo here. But I digress...the question here is, is there any way to justify the way he played his hand, given my range of hands here, and the fact that he's all but guaranteed money? Because I certainly can't find one. The only hand he beats is A10! He's behind AK, AJ, any other J, and also any pocket pair. He certainly couldn't have been betting or calling for value. The only thing he could've done different is take a stab at the pot with a smaller bet that wouldn't commit him, and fold to my raise. But I really think, if he felt compelled to call preflop, he needed to check-fold to me.

Now...my play. I still like my button raise to get all of the SB's chips all day, every day. I don't think I need to explain that. I feel like my flop play was marginal. Usually I avoid big stack bubble confrontations like this at all costs, and that was my first instinct here as well. But the more I thought about it, I just couldn't see a way he's got KJ, AJ, a set, or an overpair. While I could give reasoning against each hand, I have to admit, my decision was predominately based on a timing read. The way the hand unfolded, it just didn't *feel* like he was ahead. So I saw no reason to give him any more cheap cards, got it all in the middle, and the rest is history. I must note, however, that if I have the same hand and the flop comes down Q-high rainbow, I'm folding. Because I could much more easily see him having KQ or AQ. I think that's worth noting, and would welcome any input on that fact as well.

A couple other things to consider...First, if I put him all in there and he wakes up w/a hand that beats me, am *I* the idiot that shouldn't have been playing back at the other big stack? Did I just get lucky to not be wearing the idiot badge here? I guess I had a read and I went with it, and everything that happens after that is out of my hands, so maybe that's a question not even worth discussing. Secondly, is my attitude in general, to be keeping it pretty close to the vest against the other big stacks when we're virtually guaranteed money, the right attitude to have? I know most pros and/or bloggers are of the "wins, not cashes" attitude, but I find that trying to develop myself as a strong tight-aggressive player, I tend to default to more of a "get to the money and go from there" attitude. However, I don't know if this is a product of the player I'm trying to develop myself as, or if its the circumstance of trying to build a bankroll, and thus theoretically playing outside of my roll every day for the time being to try and get there.

Anyway, it was an interesting hand that saw me step outside of my comfort zone and manage to benefit, and will certainly stick with me. I went from hoping that everything fell into place on the bubble and getting to heads up probably close to 50/50, to getting there in less than 3 hands with a 3.5 to 1 advantage and forcing my way to a pretty easy victory. It was a HUGE swing hand, and I'm happy it went my way.

Everyone have a great weekend, and good luck on the felt!

2 comments:

Fuel55 said...

AQ is a clear PUSH or FOLD preflop there.

WindBreak247 said...

Thanks for the insight.

Knowing that, I'd probably fold it. The more I think about it, that seems like the smartest play with cash damn near guaranteed.